The federal contracting landscape doesn't wait for RFPs. While most of the industry is still parsing budget headlines, the actual money has already started moving. A combined $155B in new buying power is flooding into DOD and DHS. Incumbents on major vehicles are showing burn-rate vulnerabilities. And a $179B surge in R&D is spinning up "new start" programs that won't hit SAM.gov for months.

This isn't a forecast. This is what's happening right now.

That's why we hosted the first webinar in our 2026 Pipeline Strategy Series, "Decoding FY26 Recompetes," with Brittany Winkler, Senior GTM Manager at GovDash. The goal was simple: cut through the noise and give you the contract-level intelligence you actually need to build a winning pipeline.

Check out the on-demand recap here.

The Intelligence That Changes Everything

Drawing from GovDash's recent FY26 Federal Procurement Hotspots report, Brittany walked through the raw data on where the money is actually moving, not where people think it's moving.

The recompete landscape in FY26 looks nothing like it did in previous years. You've got the $50B Army MAPS consolidation merging RS3 and ITES-3S into a single vehicle. The $82B LOGCAP VI release is scheduled for this summer, with a heavy emphasis on mission specialization. And beyond the headlines, there's a $30B "shadow pipeline" hidden in existing task orders, work that's up for grabs because incumbents are either complacent or burning out.

The contractors who will win in 2026 aren't the ones who react fastest to RFPs. They're the ones who understand agency vulnerabilities before the Draft RFP drops.

Where the Real Money Is Moving

The 2026 market has fundamentally split. DOD and DHS are surging; combined, they're injecting $155B in new spending authority. Meanwhile, civilian agencies like Labor and State are contracting. This isn't just more money in the same buckets. It's an entirely new set of mission requirements.

Here's where to focus your pipeline:

DOD: The 541 NAICS codes (professional services) are the real engine for growth, especially in IT and engineering. Defense spending is climbing 10% annually; that's real, sustained demand.

DHS: Up 65% year-over-year. Border security, counterterrorism, and cybersecurity aren't buzzwords here; they're driving thousands of new service requirements.

HHS & Civilian Tech: Even in constrained budgets, IT resilience is non-negotiable. The agencies with mission-critical systems are still buying, just more strategically.

The R&D Surge: A $179B wave of RDT&E funding is creating entirely new program offices. These "new starts" are where margins live, and most contractors won't even know they exist until months after requirements are written.

The Strategy That Works

Brittany outlined a data-driven approach that separates winners from also-rans:

1. Focus on Major Recompetes: The Army MAPS consolidation alone presents a substantial opportunity for long-term, high-value work. LOGCAP VI, VA Community Care NextGen IDIQ ($196B multiple-award model), and DHA Omnibus ($10B biotech/medical innovation), these are your headline targets.

2. Leverage the Shadow Pipeline: This is where the real intelligence matters. Nearly $30B in task orders are in play right now. Successful contractors monitor burn rates, track incumbent weaknesses, and position early. The difference between a stalled pipeline and a converting one is knowing where the vulnerabilities are.

3. Reverse Engineer the Scoring Model: Pre-RFP advantage isn't luck, it's strategy. The government is still in market research mode on major vehicles. Being in that conversation before the draft RFP drops changes everything.

Small Business Reality Check

If you're running a small business, the landscape is tougher. Small business participation is down nearly 50%, and the generalist model? It's becoming obsolete. Specialization isn't optional anymore; it's survival.

That's why understanding where the money is moving matters even more for small firms. You need to pick your battles and own your niche.

What's Next

This webinar was just the beginning. We're running two more sessions in this series:

📅 March 4, 2026, at 11 AM EST: Targeting the $155B Mission Shift

A tactical briefing on exactly where those new contracts will land and how to pivot your pipeline to the agencies with billions in new spending authority.

📅 April 1, 2026, at 11 AM EST: Capturing the $179B R&D Surge

Where to find the "new start" innovation engines and how to distinguish between small pilot funding and the massive, multi-year production contracts that follow.

Register for upcoming webinars

Get the Full Intelligence

The webinar is just the surface. The real roadmap is in GovDash's FY26 Federal Procurement Hotspots report, a comprehensive breakdown of the $155B mission pivot, the shadow pipeline, the top 25 recompetes, and emerging enterprise opportunities.

Transform data into action. The contractors who win in 2026 aren't the ones who wait for the RFP. They're the ones who understand the market shift before anyone else.