Q4 is when federal contracting decisions peak.

Between July and September, agencies often obligate one-third of their annual budgets, with many consistently spending more than 25–30% of their budget in the final quarter. For contractors, Q4 FY25 is both the sprint to capture near-term dollars and the setup for FY26 pipelines.

This playbook delivers two things.

A data-backed view of where money is moving and a strategy for turning those signals into wins.

Inside, you’ll find:

• Q4 Federal Heat Map: Late obligations, state hotspots, NAICS, and competitive landscape, implications for FY26 (Section 1).

• Small Business and Risk Landscape: Shifts in SB participation, exposure to set-aside risk, and protest impacts (Section 2).

• Technology and Policy Signals: AI, cloud, and cybersecurity trends tied to mandates and executive orders (Section 3).

• Best-in-Class Vehicles: Why SEWP, Alliant, CIO-SP, & OASIS+ dominate Q4 and how transitions to future vehicles set up FY26 (Section 4).

• GovDash Perspective: GTM Strategy: A framework to define your value, target the right buyers, map vehicles, and align teams now for next year’s pipeline (Section 5).

The takeaway is clear.

Contractors who treat September as more than a year-end rush and instead align capture to these longer-term drivers will enter FY26 with both momentum and advantage.

Baseline: Where Q4 Dollars Flow

The Top 10 Q4 Obligators table shows why the final quarter defines the federal market. DOD, VA, HHS, and DHS consistently carry large balances into September. The DOD still has 99% of its budget unspent this late in the year, making it the number one near-term target. HHS, sitting on $310 billion in Q4 YTD with 82% of funds unspent, signals significant late obligations in health and R&D. Treasury and SSA. At the same time, smaller in amounts, they regularly obligate one-third or more of their budgets in Q4, making them efficient high-yield targets.

Contractors building FY26 account plans should treat this list as both the near-term shortlist and the foundation for next year’s pipeline strategy.

Spot the “Late Obligators”

The same table highlights the repeat “September spenders.” DOD is positioned for a surge across logistics, sustainment, and modernization. VA remains predictable in health IT and medical services, often closing out funding on SEWP and CIO-SP. DHS is concentrated in cyber and border technology, and its 92% unspent balance almost guarantees late action.

Agencies like SSA and Treasury, with steady late spikes, are lower-profile but offer decisive wins for firms that move quickly. These late obligators shape not only September but also next year’s growth lanes, since the same contracting offices tend to obligate late year after year.

Competitive Landscape

The Incumbents, New Entrants, and Teaming Signals table in the following sections makes clear where the market is locked up and where there are openings. Incumbents such as Accenture, GDIT, and Booz Allen dominate AI, cloud, and cyber with billion-dollar obligations already booked in FY25. But small businesses and JVs are breaking through where policy is creating space.

Quantum Management, Sparksoft, and A Square Group show how SDVOSB and WOSB designations translate into meaningful contracts. Resellers like V3Gate and FCN are capturing cyber dollars as SDVOSB and WOSB primes.

Treat this as a two-track game: protect or break into entrenched accounts through teaming, while using set-aside signals to prime new work where incumbents are less agile.

Implications for FY26 Capture

Taken together, the Q4 obligators and competitive dynamics map directly to FY26 planning.

DOD’s September push is not just about closing FY25; it sets up sustainment, modernization, and mission IT requirements that will roll forward.

VA health IT spending will carry over into SEWP VI and CIO-SP4. DHS's late cyber and border tech awards align with Zero Trust mandates that will peak in FY26.

Geographic hotspots like Virginia, California, and Texas reinforce where staffing, teaming, and clearances must be aligned early.

• Treat FY25’s Q4 spend patterns as the blueprint for FY26.

• The agencies obligating late this year are already shaping next year’s competitions, vehicles, and teaming structures.

• Contractors who link these September dollars to their FY26 account plans will enter the new fiscal year with an advantage.

Geographic Hotspots

The State Hotspots table in the following section shows how Q4 obligations concentrate in predictable hubs. California, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania all cluster near 30% of annual spending in the final quarter, translating into tens of billions of dollars. Virginia stands out with a 35% median, driven by its proximity to the National Capital Region and year-end tasking out of headquarters offices. Market Signal values above 80% across these states confirm that much of the spend is still to come in September.

For contractors, these patterns point to where clearances, staffing, and teaming must be in place now, not only to secure near-term awards but to anchor a presence for FY26 capture.

CONUS and OCONUS Signals

The CONUS and OCONUS table in the next section reinforces the same lesson at the regional level. Inside CONUS, IT services, healthcare, R&D, and professional services dominate the late-year push, with an 86% unspent balance pointing to an intense September.

OCONUS shows a sharper Q4 dependence, with 45% of annual spend weighted to the last quarter, concentrated in defense logistics, construction, and base operations. Contractors with global footprints should treat OCONUS as a priority for rapid execution and field readiness.

Taken together, the geographic signals point to where September decisions will hit hardest and where those obligations will roll forward into FY26 opportunities.

NAICS and PSC Codes Driving Q4 Spend

The Top 5 NAICS by Q4 Obligations table below shows where contractors should focus in the final stretch of FY25. 541330 remains a cornerstone, with 93% of funds still unspent, pointing to a heavy September across R425 professional service PSCs. 561210 is even more concentrated, with 65% of obligations landing late in the year, making it one of the most Q4-dependent categories in the market.

On the technology side, 541512 and 541519 together account for billions in IT services, cloud, and cyber obligations, with steady 40%+ Q4 weighting. 541715 rounds out the top five, reflecting ongoing demand for advanced research tied to health, defense, and emerging tech priorities.

Contractors that align their targeting with these NAICS will be positioned to capture September dollars and seed pipelines for FY26 opportunities.

Small Business Landscape

The SB Performance table clarifies both the opportunity and the risk profile heading into FY26. Across FY24, SBs collectively captured $183.4 billion, with 64% coming through set-asides. But the program splits tell a more nuanced story. WOSB, SDVOSB, & HUBZone firms show strong dependence on set-aside access, with 62%, 73%, and 74% of their awards tied directly to that channel.

That dependence creates exposure if policy shifts or compliance rules tighten. By contrast, only 27% of 8(a) obligations came through set-asides, suggesting these firms are competing more often in F&O environments or leveraging joint ventures to win larger contracts.

Firms anchored to set-asides must prepare for risk if rules change, and firms that demonstrate competitive wins outside of set-asides are best positioned to expand in FY26. This balance will be central as agencies recalibrate small business goals in the next fiscal cycle.

Protest & Risk Landscape

The Q4 Protest & Risk Landscape table in the following section underscores why protests should be treated as a drag on schedules, not a strategy for flipping awards. VA leads with 217 protests in FY25 YTD, yet none were sustained, showing aggressive filings but resilient procurement. DOD follows with 176 protests and a 2% sustain rate, meaning awards will rarely be reversed, but contractors must expect delays.

DHS is the outlier with 130 protests and a 5% sustain rate, suggesting higher exposure in IT and services vehicles, where corrective actions are more likely. HHS and Treasury sit in the middle, with lower volumes but real risk around health IT and financial modernization programs.

The Message is Clear

Going into FY26, success will come from compliance discipline, stronger proposals, and early teaming, not reliance on GAO decisions.

Agencies can view the low sustain rates as validation of procurement integrity.

Q4 Tech Dollars Are Not Moving Evenly.

Cybersecurity is surging now, cloud is setting the foundation for FY26, and AI is still maturing but will accelerate next year.

The smart play is to align capture and proposal readiness to the tempo of each lane, cyber for immediate execution, cloud for near-term pipeline positioning, and AI for building credibility in governance and applied use cases.

AI and Automation

AI remains dominated by pilots. Agencies are testing contract-writing tools, fraud detection, and analytics while layering in governance and compliance requirements. The Tech Signals table in the following section shows more than 50,000 active AI opportunities on SAM.gov, with USAF, NASA, and DOE leading demand. FY26 will mark the shift from experiments to production-level awards, notably at defense and health agencies.

Vendors that demonstrate governance frameworks and real, applied use cases will hold the advantage.

Cloud

Cloud is further along the curve, driven by Zero Trust, FedRAMP modernization, and OMB’s push for shared services. Nearly 90,000 active opportunities are on SAM.gov, with VA, CMS, and IRS at the top of the spend list. The move now is toward larger, bundled awards that consolidate IT portfolios and drive adoption of shared services. Contractors need to secure positions on vehicles like Alliant, CIO-SP, and OASIS+ to compete for the multi-year modernization contracts that will shape FY26 pipelines.

Cybersecurity

Cyber is advancing the fastest. The Tech Signals table in the following section shows over 52,000 opportunities in which agencies bypass RFIs and go straight to solicitation. VA, DISA, and the Army are already obligating billions for Zero Trust, endpoint, and identity solutions. Sustain rates are high because programs are being treated as mission-critical. In FY26, expect full-scale enterprise rollouts. Contractors who can price, propose, and execute on compressed timelines will win in this environment.

Policy Drivers Behind the Spend

The Policy Drivers table shows why these tech lanes are moving at different speeds.

Each mandate, OMB Zero Trust, AI executive orders, FedRAMP modernization, and NDAA defense priorities, is shaping both the September surge and the FY26 pipeline.

The message for contractors is straightforward: September dollars are being obligated under mandates that will also define next year’s largest competitions.

Capture Teams

Map agency compliance deadlines to vehicles now, team with offices already obligating in Q4, and treat FY25 execution as the launch pad for FY26 positioning.

Zero Trust and Cybersecurity

As shown in the table in the next section, OMB’s Zero Trust mandate (M-22-09) has moved beyond pilots. VA, DHS, and CISA are funding enterprise-scale rollouts, while EO 14028 cements SBOM and supply chain security into solicitations. By FY26, expect consolidated, multi-year Zero Trust contracts, with SBOM compliance treated as a baseline requirement.

AI, Data, and Cloud Adoption

AI executive orders pushed agencies to catalog use cases and adopt governance frameworks. As detailed in the table, defense and health agencies are piloting applied AI now, with FY26 bringing production-level contracts. Cloud Smart and FedRAMP modernization are driving multi-cloud adoption and IT consolidation, with FY26 awards expected to be larger, bundled, and compliance-focused.

Defense and Emerging Technology

The FY26 NDAA signals scale for AI, 5G, and quantum. The table shows DOD, DARPA, and Army Futures Command moving beyond prototypes to sustained programs of record. Vendors will need to prove interoperability and mission readiness to compete.

GWACs in Focus

The IT Best-in-Class Vehicles table in the following section shows why GWACs remain the backbone of late-year IT obligations. Alliant 2, SEWP V, CIO-SP3, 8(a) STARS III, and VETS 2 carry billions in ceilings and provide agencies with fast access to cyber, cloud, and AI services.

Alliant 2 is already stretched near capacity, with DHS, USAF, and Army pushing billion-dollar awards, making early positioning for Alliant 3 in FY26 critical.

SEWP V is approaching its sunset, which will accelerate late FY25 task orders before SEWP VI launches. CIO-SP3 and CIO-SP3 SB, both extended into FY26, are absorbing delayed awards as CIO-SP4 remains in protest.

8(a) STARS III shows steady growth, with HHS and Treasury relying on it to meet enterprise modernization needs.

VETS 2 continues to channel spend to SDVOSBs, especially in Army and DHS cyber tasking.

These vehicles are not interchangeable; they define which agencies you can reach in Q4 and how well you can shape FY26 pipelines.

Why Agencies Choose GWACs in Q4

The same table explains why GWACs dominate September obligations.

Agencies lean on these contracts because they offer pre-priced labor categories, established vendor pools, and faster ordering cycles.

With ceilings secured and protest exposure reduced, GWACs are the safe path when year-end dollars must be obligated under tight deadlines.

Vehicles like SEWP and CIO-SP are desirable because they carry proven vendor ecosystems and a track record of absorbing late surges. For the industry, this means one thing: access is everything.

If you are not on the GWAC, you are subcontracting. The firms that arrive in August with pricing templates, compliance blocks, and proposal shells ready capture Q4 awards.

GWACs are the fast lane for late-year spend, and the table in the next section makes clear which lanes will remain open through FY26.

Go-To-Market Strategy

1. Focus on the Right Buyers

The Top 10 Q4 Obligators table in section one shows VA, DHS, and DOD as repeat September spenders, with sub-agencies like VHA, CBP, and Army Contracting Command driving billions in late awards. The State Hotspots and CONUS/OCONUS tables in section one confirm that Virginia, California, and Texas remain geographic anchors for this surge. Crosswalk these accounts with the Policy Drivers table: VA’s health IT spend aligns directly with SEWP VI and CIO-SP4 in FY26, while DHS cyber obligations line up with Zero Trust mandates that hit measurable checkpoints next year.

Contractors who align their Q4 targets with the buyers already shaping FY26 pipelines will move with an advantage.

2. Route Through the Vehicles That Move Money

Agencies do not experiment in September; they rely on the vehicles they know. The IT Best-in-Class Vehicles table in section three shows Alliant 2, SEWP V, CIO-SP3, and 8(a) STARS III absorbing late FY25 obligations. Alliant 2 is already near its ceiling, making Alliant 3 prep urgent for FY26. SEWP V will sunset in October 2025, creating a surge of bridge awards before SEWP VI. CIO-SP3 remains extended, buying time until CIO-SP4 launches.

Agencies default to these vehicles because they are proven, fast, and carry lower protest exposure.

Plan two vehicles per agency and have an alternate. Vehicle access is mandatory in Q4; it determines whether you prime or subcontract.

3. Team Where It Matters Most

The Incumbents, New Entrants, and Teaming Signals table in section one shows entrenched primes like Accenture, GDIT, and Booz Allen continuing to dominate AI, cloud, and cyber. But small businesses and JVs, Quantum Management, Sparksoft, and V3Gate, are gaining traction where policy creates lanes. In Q4 FY25, teaming with incumbents provides access to high-value task orders that close in September.

In FY26, contractors should be ready to prime in niches where new entrants are scaling, including AI governance, CX modernization, and DEIA compliance. The Small Business Performance table in section one underscores the risk: WOSB, SDVOSB, and HUBZone firms depend heavily on set-asides, while 8(a)s win in open competition. Teaming strategies must account for these dynamics.

4. Prepare to Move at Q4 Speed

The Top 5 NAICS by Q4 Obligations table in section one shows where agencies obligate most of their September dollars: IT services, R&D, cyber, engineering, and facilities support. These categories account for 40–65% of annual obligations in Q4, so capture teams must arrive ready.

Proposal shells, compliance kits, and pricing matrices should be pre-built.

Partner coverage should include an incumbent prime, a niche tech provider, and a socio-economic partner aligned to agency goals.

Monitoring Sources Sought and pre-RFP activity from the contracting offices listed in the Obligators table is non-negotiable.

Agencies are skipping RFIs in cyber, as the Tech Signals table in section two shows, so readiness matters more than pipeline theory.

5. Execute a Consistent Story

This report’s data is not only for targeting, it is for storytelling. Agencies want to see alignment between mission problems, solutions, and vehicles.

Contractors should build two-page narratives per target agency that cover the mission, outcomes, vehicles, proof points, and teaming partners.

Consistency across proposals, one-pagers, and executive briefings builds credibility and positions contractors as trusted partners.

6. Measure and Adapt

Capture in Q4 is dynamic. The Market Signal % values in the Obligators, State Hotspots, and CONUS/OCONUS tables in section one show where unspent balances are highest.

Track them weekly. Pair this with three operational metrics: new opportunities by office, RFI-to-award velocity by vehicle, and protest activity by agency.

These metrics give capture teams the agility to pivot in September while building a stronger FY26 pipeline.

Outcome

Contractors who connect the intelligence in these tables, where the money sits, which vehicles move it, where incumbents hold ground, and how mandates are shaping demand, will outperform in Q4.

They will capture September dollars while locking in position for FY26’s most significant modernization and mission-critical competitions.

The difference between a one-quarter win and sustained growth lies in whether teams treat this report as a year-end guide or a forward-looking GTM strategy.

Schedule your demo to see how GovDash helps you enter FY26 with a clear strategy, actionable insights, and the agility to act before the RFP drops.

Download the full report here.

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